Riding Out Another Political Storm

Donald Trump is currently facing yet another crisis threatening his political career.  Like many of his previous perils, this one is also largely self-inflicted. It revolves around the unhappiness of an estimated 89% of Americans over his unwillingness to make public the FBI’s files of its investigations of Jeffery Epstein, a notorious pedophile. Epstein was indicted for having sexually abused several hundred (yes, hundred) young girls and seemingly hung himself in a Manhattan detention center while awaiting trial. Pedophilia has proven to be an emotional topic for Trump’s MAGA supporters as evidenced by their overwhelming acceptance of the Pizza gate conspiracy theory which postulated that Hilary Clinton had orchestrated a ring of pedophiles out of the basement of a Washington Pizza parlor.

Following President Biden’s election, Trump sought to recharge the emotions of his political base by claiming that the federal government was corrupt and was being run by a cabal of elites who were covering up the full extent of Epstein’s malfeasance. In doing so, he vowed that, if re-elected, he would reveal all of the sordid facts of Epstein’s exploits and hold accountable those who had been protecting Epstein as well as those who might have joined in or concealed his nefarious activities. This was a potentially dangerous ploy as he had been among, if not the, closest of Epstein’s friends during the height of his exploits.

The extent of Epstein’s sexual exploits of girls age 14 to 17 were largely revealed in two criminal complaints against him and in the trial of Ghislaine Maxwell, Epstein’s principal accomplice who is now serving a twenty-year prison term. These girls were largely recruited by Maxwell and a few have revealed that they were encouraged to engage in sexual relations with some of Epstein’s male friends.

One of Epstein’s primary business development activities was to host large parties at his home on his private Caribbean island to which he would invite wealthy men with whom he wished to do business. These events usually featured well-known lecturers. Perhaps an even greater attraction for the wealthy men who attended these events were the numerous attractive young (but not underage) women whom Epstein also invited. These young women served as bait to attract the men Epstein wished to do business with just as much as his wealthy male guests served as bait to attract these young women. His secluded private island was indeed an ideal place for illicit sexual affairs. While Epstein held himself out as a financial adviser, it’s altogether possible that it was his “social” skills as much as his financial skills that he used to cement his relationships with his wealthy clients.

Adding to the suspicion that men in high places may have also been involved in sexually exploiting underage girls is the extremely light 2009 jail sentence Epstein received in his first prosecution for sexual misconduct. Although there was evidence that he had engaged in improper sexual activity with dozens of under-age young girls, he was only charged with a single count of sex trafficking and received an18 (reduced to 13) month jail sentence during which he was only required to spend his nights in jail, while being free to spend his days unmonitored outside of jail.

Far more suspicious (for want of a more damning term) were the circumstances of Epstein’s death which occurred onAugust 9, 2019 while he was being held in the Manhattan federal detention center pending a second trial for sex trafficking and child abuse. Suspicions of foul play were not only raised by the fact that at the time of his death he was being held in the custody of the federal government, but also that the two correctional officers assigned to stand guard outside his cell were mysteriously absent at the time of his death. Although those guards were charged with dereliction of duty, charges against them were subsequently dropped. On top of that, two minutes and 53 seconds of the surveillance video recording of his cell that night had been cut from what had been presented as evidence that he had taken his own life. It should also be noted that two highly regarded forensic pathologists who examined his body found signs of homicide and that the coroner who proclaimed his death was a suicide never even examined his body. 

It's therefore wholly understandable that those in QAnon and other right-wing conspiracy theory groups might have concluded that these circumstances are just further evidence that our federal government protects the wealthy while exerting the full force of the nation’s laws on working class Americans. After all, for almost 40 years the federal government had been diverting an estimated $50 trillion of the nation’s wealth from working class citizens into the hands of the nation’s wealthiest individuals.

Perhaps Epstein’s closest friend from the late 1980s to 2004 was Donald Trump. One young lady who had dated Epstein for a few months during this period reported that every time that she was with Epstein he mentioned his friend “Donald.” The two men frequented nightclubs and parties together; and Trump is reported to have flown on Epstein’s plans at least seven times. Perhaps, the depth and nature of their friendship and their mutual attraction to beautiful women can best be conveyed by the fact that Epstein was one of the only two men whom Trump invited to a party he hosted for a group of young ladies competing to appear on a calendar he was producing.

Even though Jeffrey Epstein had been among Trump’s best friends and had died in a federal detention center while Trump was President, Trump nevertheless decided to add his voice to the growing number of conspiracy theories concerning Epstein that were being repeated by right-wing media outlets. Trump’s embrace of the conspiracy theories surrounding Epstein was quickly picked up by right-wing TV commentators and political influencers, a few of whom Trump later rewarded by inviting them to serve in his current administration. While this turned out to be a successful public relations strategy, it was not without risk.

Trump has a long history of not worrying about the future ramifications of his actions as long as they provide him with an immediate positive benefit. Examples of this facet of his personality include (1) his fiscally unsound investments in his three Atlantic City casinos, (2) his Access Hollywood tape in which he bragged about sexually assaulting women, (3) his invitation to have Russia aid him in his 2016 presidential election campaign, (4) his instigation of the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol, and (5) his misappropriation of a trove of classified government documents when he moved out of the White House in January 2021. Following each of these occasions he was able to escape accountability for his foolish or criminal actions. Thus, the fact that disclosure of the FBI’s Epstein investigatory files might prove harmful to him, it undoubtedly did not seem like something for which he might not be able to avoid accountability.

A few political pundits have expressed the view that this time might be different. Over the past several months Trump’s MAGA supporters have been led to believe that he was going to release the FBI’s entire file relating to Jeffrey Epstein. This would give them tangible evidence of how the federal government works to protect those with wealth and power. They point out that Trump’s MAGA supporters are also very upset by what they perceive is just another in a long list of false promises made by Trump.

Contrary to his campaign promises he has NOT brought inflation under control. Instead, immediately after he was re-elected he admitted that he lacked the power to do so. Similarly, he had promised to end the wars in Gaza and Ukraine on day one of his new term. Not only has he failed to do so, he has seemingly lost interest in achieving these goals. On top of these disappointments, his program to deport the nation’s illegal immigrants is resulting in a nightmare. Rather than seeking out “the worst of the worst”, over 70% of those individuals taken into custody by Immigration official have no criminal records; some are American citizens and many others were conscientiously seeking to become American citizens. In short, since his re-election Trump’s credibility among Americans has been eroding and now stands at 37%.

It's not just that Trump has compiled a string of broken promises in the first six months of his second term, but his principal achievement, the enactment of his “Big Beautiful (Budget) Bill, includes a number of unwelcomed surprises. It imposes deep cuts in the Medicaid program that will cause an estimated between 8 and 24 million Americans to lose their healthcare coverage; it cuts nutritional aid to an estimated 14 million of the nation’s children; and it will add an estimated $2.8 trillion to the nation’s deficit.  Moreover, a secondary effect of the deficit increases will be that almost 25% of the federal government’s revenues will have to be devoted to paying interest on the nation’s debt which will lead to cutbacks in other highly cherished government programs.

Rick Wilson, a well-known Republican political strategist, has described Trump as follows: “Donald Trump is not a brilliant man, but he has a certain degree of feral cunning about things that endanger him personally or legally or politically.” With that in mind, in March he is reported to have instigated a search by 1,000 FBI employees into their agency’s files relating to Jeffrey Epstein, with express instructions to identify any references to him. Thereafter, he began to back away from his pledge to release the Epstein files. He did this first in a revised version of an interview on Fox News during which he pointed out that those files include a lot of false information that could tarnish the reputations of innocent individuals.

Thereafter, he proclaimed that the Epstein files contained nothing of public interest that had not already been disclosed and that assertions to the contrary were a hoax being propagated by Democrats. He went on to state that anyone still calling for further information about Epstein was “stupid” and that he didn’t want their support.

Most, but not all of his followers got the message that further discussion of the Epstein files was verboten. Among those prominent Republicans ignoring Trump‘s plea was Florida Governor Ron DeSantis who on July 5th was still urging disclosure of the Epstein files. Trump’s demand that the nation forget about Jeffrey Epstein, however, was sufficient to prevent Fox News from thereafter even mentioning the deceased sexual predator. In fact, Laura Ingraham on one of her daily telecasts teased that she had just been notified of “breaking news” and would be discussing it after a commercial break. After that break, however, she failed to even mentioning any breaking news. Presumably she was referring to a Wall Street Journal’s story that day about a note penned by Trump which had been included in a book of birthday wishes received by Epstein in 2003 in recognition of his 50th birthday. That note included a drawing of a nude woman with an inscription referring to unmentioned secrets which the two men shared.

When informed that the Journal planned to run the story, Trump not only issued a denial that he had written the note but threatened to sue the Journal if it did so. The Journal was undeterred by Trump’s threat, prompting Trump to file a $10 million libel suit against the Journal, Rupert Murdock and the two authors of the story. There appears to be no legal or factual basis that would support Trump’s complaint which leads to the conclusion that the main purpose of Trump’s lawsuit was to deter other news entities from disseminating stories connecting him with Epstein.

Subsequently, Trump bombarded the public with a host of distractions. These include (1) proposing reinstating the Indian names of the Cleveland baseball and Washington football teams, (2) posting an AI created picture of Barack Obama being arrested and threatening criminal actions against Obama for initiating the investigation of Trump’s coordination with Russia’s effort to effect the outcome of the 2016 election, (3) releasing the FBI files relating to Martin Luther King , Jr. over the objections of Dr. King’s family, (4) renaming the Kennedy Center after his wife, Melania, (5) re-opening the investigative files relating to Hilary Clinton’s use of a private email server, and (6) threatening to strip Rosie O’Donnell of her U.S. citizenship. None of these “shinny objects” (as characterized by CNN’s Erin Burnett have seeming quelled the public’s zeal for the release of the Epstein files. Nor has it satisfied all Republican members of Congress (more about that below).

Seeing these actions fail to quell the calls for the release of the Epstein files, Trump has moved to actions hoping to show that he actually supports disclosure of Epstein’s actions. The first such effort involved having Attorney General Biondi seek the opening of the grand jury files relating to Epstein’s two indictments. This was a hollow gesture at best as grand jury files tend be closely guarded and are only released in rare circumstances. Indeed, one of the two federal judges who oversaw these proceeding has already denied Biondi’s petition. Equally important is the fact that Epstein was the sole target of those proceedings which means that disclosure would have shed little, if any, information about others who might have been involved in Epstein’s nefarious actions and ZERO about those who might have been involved inEpstein’s suspicious death.

A second and significantly more promising ploy which Trump initiated to quell the public’s clamoring for disclosure of the Epstein files was to demand that Ghislaine Maxwell be compelled to submit to public questioning. Because her criminal conviction is currently on appeal, most criminal defense attorneys would be highly reluctant to allow her to speak in public. Yet, even though Maxwell is under no obligation to testify, she has surprisingly agreed to do so. Underlying her decision was undoubtedly the possibility that she might receive a pardon from President Trump, something she has been trying to arrange.

In response to Trump’s demand, this week Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche spent two days speaking with her. Their meeting was apparently facilitated by the DOJ’s granting Maxwell with immunity for anything she might reveal in her conversations with Blanche. That immunity, however, is conditional upon her not providing any false testimony; and her attorney has stated that she is willing to testify before Congress. Blanche was a curious choice for undertaking this assignment as he was (and seemingly still is) Trump’s personal attorney. The normal choice for interrogating Maxwell would have been someone who had participated in her prosecution who would be fully familiar with her prior actions. Coincidentally, the lead prosecutor in Maxwell’s trial was Maurene Comey, James Comey’s daughter, but she was terminated by the DOJ without explanation the preceding week.

It's also noteworthy that Blanche stated that the DOJ has no open files relating to any of the individuals with whom Epstein interacted. Therefore, having Maxwell interviewed by the DOJ seemingly served no official purpose other than to determine whether Trump should grant her a pardon or otherwise commute her prison sentence. This would therefore appear to have been the incentive for Maxwell to even agree to speak with Blanche as well as explain why this assignment was given to him.

The only reason why Trump would even be inclined to grant Maxwell a pardon would be to encourage her to publicly entertain questions about Epstein’s activities and those with whom Epstein had interacted. This would help satisfy the American public’s desire to learn about those individuals who may have participated in Epstein’s criminal activities and those who may have tried to shield him from accountability. That would be particularly true if Maxwell’s answers implicated Democratic politicians and individuals who support them financially. By far most important to Trump’s decision to offer her a pardon would be whether Maxwell was willing to NOT implicate him in any wrongdoing.

While this ploy has risks, the upside possibilities for Trump certainly must be quite appealing as Maxwell was generally present most of the time Trump and Epstein were together. In addition, Maxwell was perhaps even closer to Epstein than Trump which means that she is likely aware of all of the things Epstein knew about Trump. At this point, it’s also important to note that among the charges made against Maxwell was perjury. Thus, the possibility that she might find herself in the position of having to provide false sworn testimony should not particularly bother her especially when you consider that the penalty for perjury would likely be far less than the 17 years in prison which lies ahead for her.

While prosecutors often offer immunity to individuals charged with criminal activity in order to obtain their testimony with respect to other defendants, one will undoubtedly search in vain for a president who has granted a pardon to encourage a criminal (much less a convicted criminal) to testify. So far, Trump has only granted pardons to Steve Bannon and Roger Stone for their refusal to testify. Still, Trump has already granted scores of presidential pardons to individuals who have been helpful to him, one of whom (Enrique Tarrio, the Chairman of The Proud Boys) was serving a jail sentence longer than Maxwell’s. 

Right now, the zeal for disclosure of the Epstein files, both within and outside of the U.S. Congress, remains high. House Democrats, joined by three Republican House members, were successful in getting the House Rules Committee to clear for debate a “discharge petition” seeking to have the House order the Department of Justice to release the Epstein files. The possibility that this petition might be passed was so high that Speaker Johnson dismissed House members three day before their scheduled Labor Day recess so the petition cannot be considered until at least mid-September. Even though the petition would be non-binding, Johnson did not want to even place the members of his caucus in the uncomfortable position of having to cast a vote that could anger Trump.

At this point there is good reason to believe that President Trump will again escape accountability. There is little or no likelihood that the grand jury testimony leading to Epstein’s indictments will be released; and even if it is, it should have little or no impact on Trump. There also seems to be a strong possibility that Ghislaine Maxwell will be offered a presidential pardon in return for NOT saying anything that adversely affects Trump. To be sure, Trump will generate some bad press for issuing her a pardon, but he’s managed to live through the recriminations from his prior pardons of friends. In fact, Trump has already granted scores of presidential pardons to individuals who have been helpful to him.

The timing of any such pardon poses some interesting questions. It seems highly unlikely that Trump would pardon Maxwell before she gives public testimony. That would enable her to speak freely and possibly incriminate him. If the pardon is not granted before she testifies, Maxwell runs the risk that Trump may decide not to pardon her. She is undoubtedly aware that Trump has reneged on countless business agreements, not to mention his recent breaches of his trade agreements with Canada and Mexico.

There is also a question of when Trump will issue a pardon if it is not before Maxwell testifies. A pardon granted immediately or shortly after Maxwell testifies may not satisfy those who have bought into the theory that many high profile individuals are being allowed to escape accountability for their misdeeds involving Epstein. Nor would it likely quell suspicions that Trump simply bought himself protection with yet another pardon. In all likelihood, Trump would want to delay the pardon until after the 2026 election so as to give Republican members of Congress time in which to repair their relationships with their skeptical supporters. It would also provide Trump and his Congressional allies twith time o promote the perception that Maxwell was simply another of Epstein’s victims.

  Once a date for Maxwell’s public testimony is announced, calls for the disclosure of the Epstein files are likely to be placed on hold until Congress reconvenes in early-September. Moreover, they could be permanently set aside if Maxwell delivers testimony favorable to Trump and even more so if she testifies as to wrongdoing by others. In any event, Trump is not likely to allow the DOJ to release the Epstein files and no court ruling or non-binding Congressional vote is likely to prompt him to do so. Trump may simply ride out this storm the same way he avoided disclosing his personal income tax returns during the entirety of his first term as President.