The Whims of War – Part 4
How the current war in Iran will be concluded is now becoming clearer. Ten days ago, President Trump unsuccessfully threatened the Iranian regime with the destruction of its electrical infrastructure in an effort to coerce it to capitulate. He has now twice extended his original 48-hour deadline for Iran to comply with his threats, each time citing promising negotiations with the Iranians as his reason for granting these extensions. As more fully explained below such alleged negotiations have never taken place and were merely inventions to justify his willingness to extend his deadlines. Since Iran was not moved by Trump’s original threat, he has twice escalated the penalties he plans to impose upon Iran: first, to include the destruction of Iran’s desalinization facilities, and today to include the destruction of Iran’s oil wells and its principal shipping terminal on Kharg Island. These escalating threats clearly reveal President Trump’s growing desperation to find a way to this war to a conclusion.
Also, in an effort to increase the pressure on Iran to engage in peace negotiations, President Trump has increased the number of military forces currently heading for the Persian Gulf. This ploy is also having little noticeable effect on the Iranians’ willingness to engage in peace negotiations. In fact, Iranian spokesmen have indicated that Iran is fully prepared to confront any ground attack the U.S. might initiate. The problem is that even though the ground units which the U.S. is currently bringing to the Gulf are highly trained and extremely proficient at achieving their objectives, they only include a relatively small number of individuals (somewhere between 30,000 and 50,000, as compared to the roughly 1 million members of Iran’s armed forces). This means that these units will be limited as to what they can achieve.
One possible objective of these forces might be to seize control of Kharg Island located in the northern part of the Gulf where Iran maintains its major seaport for the export of petroleum. Another objective might be to kidnap members of Iran’s leadership similar to the recent abduction of the President of Venezuela and his wife. Still another objective might be to seize control if Iran’s supply of enriched uranium. While their successful completions of any, or even all, of these missions will represent major set-backs for Iran, it’s unlikely that they will bring about an end to the war or even convince Iran to engage in peace negotiations.
In an effort to jump-start peace negotiations with Iran, Trump has also caused Pakistan to deliver his 15-point peace plan to the Iranians. That proposal, like Trump’s earlier ultimatums, has similarly been rejected. As noted above, Trump has made a number of statements to the effect that the U.S. and Iran have had a number of meetings at which progress at ending the war has been achieved. His most recent such statement asserts
“The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran.”
President Trump’s failure to provide the names of the individuals participating in these alleged discussion or even the times and places of their meetings clearly undermines the credibility of his assertions. Perhaps even more telling is a recent report that the only announced meetings relating to peace discussions that have actually taken place are the discussions hosted by Pakistan; and the only nations that have attended those meetings are Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. None of these countries have been authorized to negotiate for either the U.S. or Iran. Trump’s repeated references to what appears to be fictitious settlement negotiations reveal a level of desperation that one does not normally associate with an individual who boast about his negotiating skills.
This appears to indicate that Trump’s only realistic options are (a) to continue his bombing campaign and/or (b) to initiate a ground war, both in the hope of convincing the Iranian regime to entertain peace negotiations. Even these measures provide little assurance that Iran will capitulate. Moreover, Israel’s experience in negotiating with Hamas (a close ally of Iran) does not provide any reason to believe that either or both of these options will lead to a peace agreement. Consider that roughly 85% of the buildings in Gaza have been destroyed or damaged and Hamas has yet to surrender and remains in control of roughly 50% of the territory within Gaza.
The absence of a promising path to a negotiated settlement has led to reports emanating from the White House are that President Trump is losing interest in the war. Supporting that conclusion are the recent statements of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s that our nation’s involvement in the war will be concluded within two weeks. While the President Trump is certainly capable of doubling down on his quest to vanquish Iran, that doesn’t seem likely. The world price of oil has gone up by over one-third in the last four weeks and is likely to continue its upward climb as the U.S. and other countries to deplete their petroleum reserves. Rising crude oil prices will not only make gasoline more expensive in the U.S. but also exert upward pressure on the prices of numerous other items. This may well explain why Trump’s latest threat is centered on Iran’s reopening traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Adding to the pressure on Trump to achieve a fast end to the war is that his over-all net approval rating has fallen to -18% and his net rating for managing the nation’s economy now stands at -29%. Equally discomforting to him is the fact that his customary efforts to extoll the benefits of his actions in the face of these dour statistics are only making things worse by undermining his credibility.
Faced with similar debacles in the past, Trump has tried to simply bow out and declare victory, which is what seems to be where he’s now heading. In all probability he will use the next two weeks to inflict as much harm as possible on the Iranians and then declare that he has accomplished what he had originally set out to do; namely, to postpone the threat posed by Iran to world peace for at least another three to five years. He will also likely assert that he was forced to take this action by the way the Obama and Biden administrations had allowed Iran’s military power to grow unchecked.
It remains unclear what concessions, if any, Iran will make in connection with the withdrawal of the U.S. forces. Since Trump is unlikely to comply with Iran’s demand that the U.S. compensate it for the destruction caused by its forces, it seems unlikely that Iran will be willing to comply with most of Trump’s demands for peace. At best, Iran might be willing to enter into a cease-fire arrangement with the U.S., but that too is problematic because neither side trusts the other to honor their pledges. In any event, Iran is likely to be reluctant to enter into a cease-fire arrangement with the U.S. without Israel’s agreement to join in any such arrangement. That’s because the U.S. is the only nation with sufficient influence over Israel to cause it to cease its attacks against Iran.
Israel, however, is likely to be disinclined to cease its attacks on Iran after the U.S. forces withdraw. That’s because it will want to take further advantage of Iran’s current decreased ability to defend itself against aerial attacks. It will also want to extend its own efforts assassinate Iran’s remaining military and political leaders as well as those individuals working to develop nuclear technology. Despite its misgivings, Isreal is likely to reluctantly accede to any pressure placed upon it by the Trump administration.
While most of Trump’s loyal supporters will undoubtedly be relieved by a cessation of our nation’s involvement in this war, their joy will likely be short-lived. Even though the capacity of Iran and its proxies to make mischief throughout the Middle East may be diminished, it will not be eliminated. Even though it’s highly likely that Iran will have to agree not to impede shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the economic effects of the war are likely to linger (if not continue to increase) for many more months; and that will not change whether or not Israel chooses to continues its attacks on Iran.
The vast majority of Americans, however, will not be praising Trump or those in Congress who have failed to stop, or even criticize, Trump’s unlawful war. They were economically hard-pressed even before Trump began his second term as President; and their plight has been made much worse as a result of his tariffs and the higher costs of living they are facing as a result of his pursuit of a war against Iran It should also be pointed out that Trump’s war, at the very least, is likely to cost our federal government at least $35 billion which will add to our nation’s already obscene national deficit. Equally important, they are unlikely to be unwilling to forgive Trump for having unilaterally started his war without conferring with Congress as required by the Constitution. In short, they will view Trump as an unbridled leader who poses a danger to well-being of our entire nation.
John Brennan, the former CIA Director, has even suggested that Trump might be removed from office by his own administration’s invocation of the 25th Amendment. That suggestion, however, while not inappropriate, is not likely to be pursued as the members of Trump’s administration were unwilling to even advise him that his action in starting the war were problematic. Perhaps more likely is the possibility that after the November elections a Democratic controlled Congress will vote to impeach him. Although he would certainly deserve such a rebuke, that too is not likely to happen unless the Democrats conclude that there is no other way to prevent Trump from ignoring the Congress’ Constitutional prerogatives. Even so, the idea of elevating Vice President Vance to the Presidency, may be viewed as more odious than allowing Trump to remain in office.
While President Trump may once again safely walk away from a disaster which he caused, the world will be changed by what he has done. One of the principal casualties of the war, in addition to the human and physical damage inflicted to, and by, Iran, will be the damage done to our nation’s relationship with its NATO allies. Trump started this war without alerting them or even inviting them to join forces in assisting the U.S. in its effort to restrain Iran. Equally insulting was his berating them for not answering his pleas for help after he realized the extent of the problems which the U.S. faced in keeping the Strait of Hormuz open.
What was particularly insulting was that Trump seemed to think that Article 5 of the NATO alliance requires all of its member nations to assist in a war he started when that provision only requires a joint effort when a member nation has been attacked by another country. In NATO’s over 75 years of existence the U.S. is the only nation that has received the benefits of Article 5; and that was in the wake of Al-Qaeda’s attack on 9/11. The message that Trump has clearly conveyed to our NATO allies is that they cannot expect the U.S.’s help when they are attacked, something they may have already suspected when Trump refused to continue helping Ukraine fend off the attacks by Russia which indirectly affects them.
Equally disenchanted by Trump’s actions will be the nations of the Persian Gulf who have been attacked by Iran in an effort to put pressure on the U.S. to end the war. They will come away from this war believing that the U.S. is less than a reliable ally because it has taken action which resulted in their sustaining damage without removing the threat against them posed by Iran. This will likely encourage them to build closer ties with China which seems destined to surpass the U.S. in economic and military strength over the next ten years. Perhaps more importantly, China already imports roughly ten times the amount of oil from the Persian Gulf countries than the U.S. Similarly, the Persian Gulf countries may view Israel, which shares their fear and disdain of Iran, as being more allied with them than the U.S.
Trump’s actions in connection with this war have also greatly benefitted Russia which has been assisting the Iranians in targeting U.S. facilities and personnel. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively being blocked, the price of crude oil has increased by roughly 50%. That’s working to the advantage of Russia, enabling it to greatly increase its revenues from its petroleum exports. It should also be noted that Trump has further rewarded Russia by lifting existing sanctions on the purchase of Russian oil, a move ostensibly intended to prevent the world price of oil from increasing further.