Starting in 1981 our nation’s federal tax system has become increasingly skewed in favor of the wealthy. As a result, billionaires pay taxes on a lower percent of their incomes than truck drivers and nurses. This has enabled the wealthiest 1% of Americans to accumulate a combined wealth equal to that of 93% of our nation’s residents. This transfer of wealth has left roughly 25% of Americans with no savings and 64% characterizing themselves as living paycheck to paycheck. To make this situation worse, our nation has run up debts aggregating $40 trillion and the annual interest on that debt currently exceeds $1 trillion. This, in turn, has led to cut backs in the social welfare programs upon which working class Americans are forced to rely.
Our nation’s problems, however, extend far beyond its oversize debt and its heavily skewed distribution of wealth. Our government has commenced a war with Iran, the population of which is less than one third the size of ours and whose GDP is roughly 1/20 of ours. Notwithstanding our far greater wealth and military power, there appears no way that we can prevail in this conflict without greatly escalating hostilities which will surely cause an untold loss of lives and treasure. In sum, initiating this conflict was an impulsive and foolish act. This faux pas has already run up a reported $47.1 billion in direct military expenditures which probably does not include the costs of repairing the damage done to our nation’s facilities in and around the war zone and certainly doesn’t include the estimated $218 billion that U.S. citizens have incurred as as a direct result of the war. Nor does it include the over $100 billion of increased costs which U.S. consumers have had to bear as a result of the wide panoply of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on U.S. imports.
Adding to our problems, the Trump administration is now trying to deport all 11+ million illegal aliens living within our borders (not just “the worst of the worst”) even though the per capita crime rate among illegal aliens is roughly one half that of U.S. citizens. More importantly, the vast majority of them are productive members of our population and serve crucial roles in the construction, farming and healthcare industries, something President Trump is only now beginning to realize.
Another source of dismay is that the Trump administration has largely undermined our nation’s criminal justice system, using it to pursue Trump’s perceived enemies and declining to prosecute criminal actions against persons closely associated with him. Even worse, President Trump has granted pardons to persons convicted of serious crimes who have either acted upon his instructions or blessed him with significant financial contributions. This abandonment of the Rule of Law has not only led to our Department of Justice’s loss of a large number of its most experienced attorneys and investigators, but it has also led to widespread distrust in our federal government. These actions cry out for removing the DOJ from the Executive Branch of our federal government and placing it under the control of the Congress.
Although dissatisfaction among working class Americans has been mounting since the momentary collapse of our nation’s financial markets starting in the Fall of 2008, it has greatly accelerated since the beginning of President Trump’s second term in office. That’s because he has embarked upon a race against time to convert our form of government from a democracy into an oligarchy. That effort has not only exacerbated the financial problems of working class Americans but also has been accompanied by a number of measures designed to diminish their ability to control their fate through the ballot boxes. The recent election results reflect their pent-up frustration and caused the defeat of a significant number of Republican members of Congress. This political uprising also resulted in the ouster of 540 of Republican state governmental officials.
An explanation as to how we arrived at this juncture is a tale which is far too long to include in an article focused on the future direction of our government. Instead, it will explore what President Trump is likely to do during the remainder of his presidency and be followed by the choices confronting the newly elected Democratic controlled Congress. While the courts are also likely to become involved in the efforts to rectify the nation’s current problems, one can only hope that, recognizing their own significant role in contributing to those problems, its judges will refrain from causing further harm.
The Trump Administration
It’s always difficult to predict what President Trump is likely to do since much of what he says simply represents efforts to manipulate public opinion. In addition, he has few guiding principles which allows him to frequently alter the plans he actually intends to carry out. Nevertheless, it seems likely that the drubbing his party received in the recent elections is going to cause him to set aside the thoughts he might have had about serving a third term as president and converting the U.S. into a Putin-like oligarchy. He has already admitted this; and, since he has an aversion to admitting setbacks, this probably is a reliable indicator of his actual intentions. Instead, he will likely try to remain in office and continue to exploit the powers of the presidency to enhance his and his family’s wealth and to embellish his legacy as our nation’s president.
His desire to serve out his current term is going to require him to at least appear to be cooperating with Congressional Democrats so they won’t be prompted to commence a third impeachment proceeding against him. Still, he will undoubtedly seek to retard the efforts of Congressional Democrats to roll back his more detrimental efforts over the last two years. This will likely include prompting his remaining acolytes in the Congress to mount oppositions and initiating countless legal actions which will delay the efforts of Congressional Democrats. He also has a tendency to launch counter-attacks and diversionary tactics whenever his more direct actions prove unsuccessful. This might include having the DOJ commence investigations of Democratic leaders or deploying the national guards to quiet perceived unrests in U.S. cities. Although President Trump has a history of backing away from his more menacing threats, he occasionally under-estimates the determination of his opponents which means that he is capable of miscalculating himself into another impeachment proceeding.
In this connection, it’s worth noting that Trump’s super-PAC still has a reported $164.3 million which was not spent trying to help Republican legislators retain their seats. It’s also reported that Trump may have control over additional campaign contributions totaling several hundred million dollars. This raises the question as to why he didn’t expend these funds to help re-elect the six (and possibly seven) Republican senators and 44 (and possibly as many as three more) House members who have already lost their seats. It’s a pretty safe bet that this was not simply an oversight on his part.
One possible answer is that he planned to use those funds to pursue a third term in office. While he has frequently voiced the possibility of defying the Twenty-Second Amendment of the Constitution and seeking a third term as our nation’s president, that delusion clearly seems to have been shattered even before Election Day. He also might have decided to hold on to these funds believing that other Republican controlled super-PACs had already amassed ample funding to secure their re-elections. That possibility also seems erroneous because a few weeks before the elections the RNC had pulled its funding out of several battleground states and shifted it to incumbent Republican legislators in ruby-red states who appeared to be in danger of being deposed. A more likely answer is that President Trump wanted to keep the funds he controlled as a war chest to maintain the continuing loyalty of those Republican legislators who were going to retain their seats. Stated another way, he wanted to maintain an economically viable threat to cause a “primary” defeat of any Republican legislator who displayed signs voting against his wishes during his remaining two years in office.
Another strategy President Trump may seek to employ to avoid a third impeachment proceeding is to make his Cabinet officers and staff members serve as the face of his administration’s actions. Although it’s uncharacteristic of him to hide safely in the shadows, his recent elevation of the outspoken and discordant Stephen Miller to replace Susan Wiles as his Chief of Staff might evidence his adoption of that strategy. In any event, it’s a strong sign that, notwithstanding his recent remarks that he can work well with Democrats, he appears intent on opposing Democratic efforts to roll back (a) his tax cuts for the wealthy, (b) his efforts to cleanse the nations of its alien population and (c) his reductions in social welfare expenditures.
His promotion of Stephen Miller, however, seems like a poor decision since Miller has few friends in Congress and is unlikely to make any efforts to cooperate with the Democrats. Indeed, in accepting his appointment as Trump’s new Chief of Staff, Miller announced that he would not be deterred by Democratic opposition. Accordingly, he is likely to escalate the actions laid out for President Trump in ”Project 25” with even more determination than when Suzie Wiles served as Trump’s Chief of Staff. Thus, there is a significant chance that he will quickly become the subject of an impeachment proceeding that is likely to end in a conviction. That’s because despite Trump’s high regard for Miller, he will not be able to prevent Miller from sealing his own destiny and possibly laying a foundation for his own impeachment.
There have already been three bills filed in the House to impeach President Trump. Those bills, however, are not likely to be acted upon immediately; and may well sit dormant while the new House leadership seeks to move forward with the daunting tasks of improving the lives of working class Americans. As such, those bills will seemingly provide an incentive for President Trump to cooperate with the efforts of the Democratic leadership to address the problems currently faced by working class Americans. Should he fail to do so, he could quicky find himself defending his third impeachment proceeding.
Congressional Democrats currently seem to be in no hurry to impeach President Trump even if there is a real possibility that the requisite number of Republican senators have indicated a willingness to join in removing him from office. That’s because the voters have made it clear that they want the Congress to concentrate on attacking the problems that are plaguing them and to stop playing partisan political games. Accordingly, even a successful effort to impeach Trump may impair their ability to enact remedial legislation. Their decision to delay efforts to impeach President Trump, however, may be given a high priority if President Trump persists in causing further damage to the nation like escalating the war in Iran or starting a new war or even accelerating his assistance in Russia’s efforts to annex Ukraine.
In the meantime, Congressional Democrats may nevertheless proceed quickly to impeach certain other members of his administration. This will not only bring an end to the damage they are causing, but also to put Trump on notice that they are prepared to employ the impeachment process against him should he continue to breach the nation’s laws or Constitution. Among those who are likely to be targeted for impeachment are Defense Secretary Hegseth and Health and Human Services Secretary Kennedy in addition to Stephen Miller. Each of these members of his administration have been at the center of major calamities and have been the subject of constant public criticisms. They also have little support in both the House and the Senate. Thus, each should prove to be an easy impeachment target.
President Trump has continued to express confidence in Secretary Hegseth; and this has helped him escape (at least temporarily) an effort to impeach him initiated by outgoing Republican Congressman Thomas Massie. While there may be further efforts to adopt Congressman Massie’s bill during the remaining days of the current Congress, the Congressional Democrats are likely to pursue their own impeachment resolution in the next Congress. There is speculation that President Trump is going to try to engineer having Hegseth fill the soon to be vacated Senate seat currently occupied by Marsha Blackburn who has been elected as Tennessee’s new governor. While this could give Hegseth more protection from Democratic attacks than a presidential pardon, it would actually make him an inviting witness to testify about Trump’s involvement in the ill-fated war in Iran and the killing of over 200 Ecuadorian fishermen.
HHS Secretary Kennedy has no safe way of avoiding impeachment and disgrace; and it is unlikely that President Trump will make any attempt to protect him. Another possible impeachment target is Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin. He has presided over and protected ICE and Customs and Border Protection officers who have terrorized aliens and killed a number of innocent individuals in the process. Mullin has also been in charge of scores of detention facilities where numerous detainees have been mistreated and died. In the process he has alienated not only Democrats but also numerous MAGA adherents who have been supporters of the Trump administration’s deportation policies. Accordingly, notwithstanding the fact that he briefly served in the U.S. Senate, he too may be vulnerable in an impeachment proceeding.
Lastly, as noted above, another potential impeachment candidate is Attorney General Todd Blanche. Blanche has not only carried out President Trump’s retribution campaign, but has openly stated that he views his role as representing President Trump and the members of his administration, as opposed to the interests of the American people. In the aftermath of the Watergate scandal, it was concluded that the DOJ should act apart from the administration even though this has not been embodied in either a statute or the Constitution. Indeed, following the Watergate scandal until Trump’s second term in office communications between the White House and the DOJ were strictly limited. Since Trump is likely to veto any legislation seeking to codify the post-Watergate relationship between the White House and Congress, the only immediate remedy to the issue will be to impeach Blanche.
Yet another potentially serious problem that President Trump will likely face is retaining other Cabinet and staff members. His misbegotten war in Iran, his efforts to suppress voting, his disdain for the Rule of Law and his efforts to use his political power to enrich himself has made him more toxic than Covid-19. In addition, his willingness to dismiss and discredit staff members who display any signs of disloyalty render him an unappealing employer, making it difficult to recruit new members of his administration. Indeed, as attractive as an appointment to a high public office may look on a resume, that consideration may be more than offset by the stigma that goes with carrying out some of Trump’s odious directives. Even though Trump may freely grant pardons to those who loyally serve him, that may not be enough to attract employees with political experience and/or ambitions. The result will be that an already hollowed-out and ineffectual administration may become even more so.
In addition, there have been many stories about hearings to be conducted in the House and Senate committees over the multitude of misdeeds committed by the Trump administration. The Congress, however, has precious little power to punish malfeasance; and Attorney General Blanche is unlikely to move forward with any criminal (or even civil) proceedings called for in Congressional resolutions. He has already demonstrated this by his blatant refusal to comply with the Epstein Files Transparency Act. Should he continue to ignore Congressional demands, he too could move to the top of the impeachment list; and there is likely to be a dozen or more Republicans sufficiently anxious to separate their fate from Trump to vote to remove him from office.
These hearings will largely be political theater designed to demonstrate the Democrats’ determination to comply with the demands of working class Americans. They will also help generate support for that legislation. Equally important, they will develop the evidence needed for criminal prosecutions to be pursued should the Democrats win the White House in 2028. They will also serve as a deterrent against future misconduct by the members of the Trump administration.